UK Forecasts Signal Growth in Unregulated Online Gambling Activity Through 2028

New projections from H2 Gambling Capital show illegal online gambling wagers in the UK heading toward £33 billion each year by the close of 2028, a figure that nearly doubles the £17 billion estimate for 2025, while roughly one in five stakes could move into unregulated channels during the same period.

The Betting and Gaming Council drew attention to these numbers in its May 21, 2026 update, which cited the research as evidence of shifting market dynamics under current rules.

Details Behind the Numbers

H2 Gambling Capital compiled the forecasts by modeling how recent adjustments to remote gaming duties and broader regulatory requirements affect operator costs and player behavior, and the resulting data points to a measurable transfer of activity away from licensed platforms, because higher compliance expenses reduce the ability of those platforms to match the pricing and promotions available in the black market.

Analysts tracking these trends note that the projected rise from £17 billion to £33 billion represents more than simple inflation or overall market growth; instead it reflects an accelerating relocation of wagers that previously occurred through regulated sites, and the one-in-five stake estimate underscores how quickly that relocation could occur if cost pressures continue.

Regulatory and Tax Pressures at the Center

Recent increases in duties on remote gaming have raised the operating expenses for licensed companies, which in turn narrows the margin between legal and illegal offerings, and the Betting and Gaming Council report links this cost gap directly to the forecast surge in unregulated activity, because players respond to differences in odds, bonuses, and payout speed.

Those who have examined similar policy shifts in other jurisdictions observe that when licensed operators lose competitiveness on price, a portion of demand migrates elsewhere, and the H2 Gambling Capital model applies that pattern to the UK market through 2028.

Industry Response and Timeline

The Betting and Gaming Council presented the H2 Gambling Capital findings on May 21, 2026, as part of an ongoing discussion about how tax and regulatory settings shape market balance, and the organization used the projections to illustrate potential outcomes if current duty levels remain in place.

Figures released in the update cover the full period from 2025 through 2028, showing a steady climb rather than a sudden spike, which suggests the shift develops gradually as operators adjust pricing and as players become more familiar with alternative channels.

Data from the same source indicates that the £33 billion annual total by the end of 2028 would place illegal online gambling at a scale comparable to significant portions of the regulated sector, and the one-in-five stake movement estimate provides a concrete benchmark for how much volume could leave licensed environments.

Market Context and Forward Projections

Observers who follow gambling economics point out that the forecasts rest on assumptions about continued regulatory stability and steady consumer preferences, while any future changes to duty rates or enforcement priorities could alter the trajectory, yet the May 2026 release presents the £17 billion to £33 billion path as the baseline scenario under existing conditions.

The report further notes that the projected growth occurs across online channels where remote gaming duties apply most directly, and it separates these figures from other forms of gambling that fall under different tax treatments.

Conclusion

The H2 Gambling Capital projections, highlighted by the Betting and Gaming Council on May 21, 2026, establish a clear numerical outlook for illegal online gambling activity in the UK through 2028, and they tie that outlook to specific regulatory and tax developments that affect operator competitiveness.

Those figures—£17 billion in 2025 rising to £33 billion by the end of 2028, with one in five stakes potentially shifting—supply a measurable reference point for anyone tracking how policy settings influence where wagers take place.